Have you ever bought Christmas decorations the week after Christmas? Of course! The seasoned shopper will tell you that’s when to snag those great discounts. But what if you could predict how a product will do before the season approaches? HammerTap’s Last Year’s Auctions can help you track market trends and predict your own success for categories and for specific products.
Why use Last Year's Auctions? Let’s face it—we’re creatures of habit. We like the predictable. Believe it or not—so does the market! Seasonal and holiday trends are often consistent and provide a wealth of information for those who know where to look.
Last Year’s Auctions is designed to show us what was happing in the coming month one year ago so we can plan our own strategies for the future.
To illustrate, let’s look at the market for portable air conditioners, a must-have during the hot summer months. By using
Last Year’s Auctions, we can track the popularity of portable air conditioners one year ago and use that information to plan our own success over the coming month.
Trending for Success To begin, I’ll conduct a search for portable air conditioners (category #79624) from July 23 through August 23 2007. I will do four searches—one for each week of my time span.
To complete my first search, I’ll open a
Category Search form, enter #79624 in the
eBay Category Number field, select the
Last Year’s Auctions checkbox, and set the
Start Date at 07/23/07 and the
End Date at 07/30/07.
Week 1 (July 23-30)The
Results section in the
Findings window of my first search:
To complete my second search, I’ll open a
Category Search form, enter #79624 in the
eBay Category Number field, select
Last Year’s Auctions, and set the
Start Date at 07/31/07 and the
End Date at 08/07/07.
Week 2 (July 31-Aug 7)The
Results section in the
Findings window of my second search:
To complete my third search, I’ll open a
Category Search form, enter #79624 in the
eBay Category Number field, select
Last Year’s Auctions, and set the
Start Date at 08/08/07 and the
End Date at 08/15/07.
Week 3 (Aug 8-15)The
Results section in the
Findings window of my third search:
To complete my fourth search, I’ll open a
Category Search form, enter #79624 in the
eBay Category Number field, select
Last Year’s Auctions, and set the
Start Date at 08/16/07 and the
End Date at 08/23/07.
Week 4 (Aug 16-23)The
Results section in the
Findings window of my fourth search:
Predicting Future Profits Let’s take a closer look at our results. From Week 1 to Week 4, the
LSR (
Listing Success Rate) fell from 52.01% to 46.37%. Though there was a little variation in the rates (the sharper decrease from Week 2 to Week 3 and then the slight recovery in Week 4), overall the listing success rate decreased, and we can clearly see that the demand for portable air conditioners was declining as the season progressed. Prices fell too. The
ASP (
Average Sale Price) dropped about $40 from $266 in Week 1 to $225 in Week 2, held about steady through Week 3, and then fell again to $192 in Week 4. The summer was almost over, and you can tell in the prices of the portable air conditioners. Buyers were starting to expect those “end of season” deals and weren’t willing to pay as much. These numbers can clue us in as to when we need to have sold the bulk of our inventory if we’re going to make the highest profit.
Listings with Sale and
Total Sales also give us valuable information. From Week 1 to Week 4, listings with a sale declined from 220 to 185—mirroring the downward trend we saw with the listing success rate. In the
Total Sales report we can see that the highest level of total sales was in Week 1 at $87,894, the number fell in Week 2, rallied slightly in Week 3, and fell again in Week 4. By Week 4, total sales had almost been cut in half. The peak in the total sales and listings with a sale in Week 1 shows that this market is definitely in the decline—as we would expect as the season comes to a close—but the research gives you a definite timetable, showing exactly when the decline happens, so you can anticipate the market shift.
So what does this information mean to us? Looking at the market over a one-month stretch, we can see some definite trends in listing success, sales, and profit. Modeling our own listings based on market fluctuation one year ago helps us anticipate likely fluctuations in the future.
To best prepare for future success, be sure to examine not only the
Results section but also the
What Do I Want Answered? and the
Options sections in the
Findings window to determine the elements of a successful listing and to predict your potential success. Arming yourself with information from previous auctions can give you an edge in today’s market—you will better be able to anticipate trends, craft the most effective listing, and reap the benefits of success!
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